Fremantle vs Pies Match Preview
Look, I'm going to be completely straight with you. I am a Fremantle Dockers supporter of some thirty-odd years. I have suffered. I have endured the Matt Pavlich era of "nearly." I was there for the 2013 Grand Final. I know what it is to want something desperately and watch a Victorian team take it away from you with some combination of AFL scheduling, umpiring decisions, and the general gravitational pull of the Melbourne football establishment. I mention all of this purely so you understand the spirit in which this preview is written. Which is to say: with total, unflinching, purple-tinted bias, and absolutely zero apologies about it.
Fremantle. Collingwood. Adelaide Oval. Gather Round. Tonight. This is, as far as I'm concerned, the only game worth watching this weekend — which is convenient, because I have the night off, I have beers, and I have been talking to anyone who will listen since Monday about our midfield clearance differential. My wife has asked me to stop. I will not stop.
The Situation: A Season Going Exactly to Plan Let me describe Fremantle's 2026 season so far, and I ask you to note that I am describing it in the same tone a proud parent uses to describe a child's school report. Round 2: absolutely dismantled the Demons — with Brayshaw (39 touches) and Bolton (32 and nine clearances) playing like men who have been told the cameras are on and this footage will be used for their AFL 360 tribute package. Round 3: disciplined win over Richmond in what TC Narelle turned into a glorious 60-point purple monsoon. Round 4: ground out a genuinely tense two-point win over Adelaide in Good Friday football, with our captain Alex Pearce — who is getting so comfortable taking last-gasp heroic marks in South Australia that he should probably look into property investment there — throwing himself at the ball like Superman defending a phone box. Three wins from four games. Third on the ladder. Exactly as planned.
Collingwood, by contrast, have had a 2026 that resembles a car that looks great in the showroom but keeps making a concerning noise when you turn left. Two wins, two losses. Their Rounds 3 and 4 left captain Darcy Moore with a hamstring and an inflamed bursa, an injury combination so specific it sounds like something you'd pull up with in a physio's nightmare. Scott Pendlebury with Achilles tightness, which is apparently a genuine medical condition and not just what happens when a 38-year-old man tries to play professional AFL football in his 429th game. They were then thoroughly beaten by Brisbane last week in what the mainstream media called "a tough night" and what I call "extremely entertaining to watch from a pub in Perth."
LAST THREE ENCOUNTERS — FREO vs COLLINGWOOD 2025 Rd 20 MCG Fremantle 12.7 (79) def. Collingwood 11.12 (78) Freo kicked last 4 goals. Luke Jackson set shot with 5 mins left. Nick Daicos had 43 disposals and nine clearances. Jamie Elliott missed a sitter. Patrick Voss kicked SIX. A 62,000-crowd MCG thriller. The stuff of dreams. WIN 🎉
2025 Rd 10 Optus Collingwood 15.7 (97) def. Fremantle 12.11 (83) We led. We were good. Then we weren't. We don't talk about this one. LOSS 😤
2024 Rd 11 Optus Fremantle 11.9 (75) drew Collingwood 10.15 (75) We trailed by 25 with time on. Booted four straight. Then Jeremy Sharp kicked a behind instead of a goal in the last minute. Caleb Serong was reportedly vomiting during the final quarter. This is how we roll.
You see the pattern. These are not football games. These are cardiovascular events. Three consecutive Freo-Pies matches decided by a combined margin of fifteen points. The draw at Optus in 2024 remains one of the most physically distressing ninety minutes of my life, made worse by the AFL later admitting the umpires incorrectly paid a mark to Collingwood in the final minutes that helped seal the draw rather than a Freo win. I have not moved on from this. My therapist is aware.
The one-point win at the MCG last year — Freo's first win at that ground against Collingwood in six years — was vindication of the highest order. Patrick Voss kicked six goals at the MCG in his first game there. SIX. Andrew Brayshaw was wearing his brother Angus's old helmet, having split his head open the week before, and still kicked a goal. And uncharacteristically, the usually ice-veined Jamie Elliott missed a set shot that would have stolen the game. The football gods taketh. The football gods also occasionally, very occasionally, giveth back.
Collingwood: The State of the Patient Here is what Collingwood bring to Adelaide Oval tonight. The good news for them: Nick Daicos has been cleared to return after missing last week with a corked calf — a late withdrawal that the Richmond game preview notes described as "catastrophic for Collingwood" which is a bit dramatic, but not entirely wrong. Scott Pendlebury, who is 38 years old and in his 429th AFL game and still capable of being one of the better players on the ground through sheer footballing intelligence, has also been cleared after his Achilles scare. They've also named debutant Angus Anderson, a mature-age midfielder who apparently had 30 disposals, 12 clearances and eight tackles in the VFL last week, which is the sort of stat line that makes everyone excited and which I shall note while simultaneously not being remotely concerned, because we have Caleb Serong and he will eat this man alive.
The bad news for them: Darcy Moore is out for three to four weeks with his hamstring-and-inflamed-bursa combo. Moore is Collingwood's captain and their best key defender, and without him, Josh Treacy will be lining up against someone considerably less intimidating. Their key defensive stocks, already described by multiple outlets as thin, are now also concave. Without Darcy Moore, Treacy, Amiss and Voss could cause serious damage. I am choosing to believe this assessment as objective truth and not betting-site promotional content.
Collingwood haven't scored 100 points since July last year. JULY LAST YEAR. I have been scoring 100 points per night in my dreams since Round 2. We are different.
There is also the matter of the ruck. Darcy Cameron's lack of spring has been badly exposed by the new ruck rules and Luke Jackson will be all over him in this one. Luke Jackson is an absolute monster at the tap this season. Darcy Cameron is not a monster at the tap. This will be a notable contest in the way that a nature documentary about a large predatory fish encountering a smaller non-predatory fish is notable.
Fremantle: The State of the Magnificent I am going to try to describe Fremantle's current form without sounding like a man who has been in love with his own football team for three decades and is consequently incapable of rational assessment. Fremantle are good. They are fast. They play the ball quickly out of stoppages. The midfield of Brayshaw, Serong, Bolton, and the increasingly dangerous Murphy Reid is winning clearances at a rate that places them second in the competition for clearance differential. Collingwood are second last.
Hayden Young and Michael Frederick are both confirmed out for this week, which is a genuine irritation. Young in particular — when fit, he is the missing third blade on a midfield Swiss Army knife — is the sort of player whose absence makes you feel the slight chill of imperfection. But even without him, our forward line is purring. Jye Amiss kicked four against Adelaide last week in a performance that had me reconsidering my previous concerns about his goal-kicking efficiency under pressure. Josh Treacy continues to be Josh Treacy, which means he will probably kick three or four tonight against a Collingwood key defence held together with gaffer tape and the memory of Darcy Moore.
The Nick Daicos Problem (Or: The One Thing I Cannot Bring Myself to Dismiss) I am a fair man. A reasonable man. A man capable of acknowledging that the opposition has one player who gives me genuine concern. That player is Nick Daicos. Fremantle have, in the past, used Corey Wagner to tag Daicos, with mixed results. Wagner's presence as a defensive assignment player gives Longmuir a lever to pull. Whether he pulls it tonight will depend on how the game is tracking. But make no mistake: if Nick Daicos is allowed to float free in this contest and get 40+ disposals in a wet Adelaide night, Fremantle's plans will need rapid revision. He is the one variable I cannot fold neatly into the "yes but we win clearly" narrative. He is, in short, a problem.
But here is the thing about problems: Jordan Clark has been a beneficiary of this matchup in recent years, averaging 30.7 disposals against the Pies in their last three meetings. And Caleb Serong has had 30+ disposals in three of four games this season. Problems, as I understand them, tend to have solutions. Ours involve two very good footballers and a team built to win clearances.
⛈ The Weather: Adelaide Edition (Less Dramatic, Still Relevant) 🌧 Adelaide Oval Conditions — Friday Night, April 10 Perth's Gather Round visitors will recognise the feeling. Adelaide is copping its own autumn soaking this week, with a cold front sweeping through South Australia ahead of the weekend. Tonight at Adelaide Oval: cloudy, high chance of showers, 19°C and westerly winds 25 to 40 km/h turning southwesterly through the evening. This is not tropical cyclone territory, but it is properly cold, properly wet and properly unpleasant for players and supporters alike. Perfect football weather, in other words.
Now, does cold, wet Adelaide weather help or hurt Fremantle? The answer depends heavily on which part of our game you're analysing. Our handball-chain midfield style actually functions better in slippery conditions than an aerial kicking game. The Collingwood pressure game, which is built around physical forward press and quick ball movement into space, is also capable in the wet. But their scoring efficiency has been questionable in dry conditions. Add rain, a slippery Sherrin, and Darcy Cameron trying to take marks against Luke Jackson in a 35km/h wind, and you can see why the bookmakers are not lining up to back the Pies.
There is one area where the conditions are actually a slight equaliser: Collingwood's inside pressure. The Magpies, when they're right, lay enormous numbers of tackles in their forward half. In a cold, wet match where ball movement slows slightly, this becomes an asset. If Freo is sloppy with their disposal early in the wet, Collingwood can manufacture turnovers and generate forward entries from the chaos.
The Adelaide Oval Factor: Where Hearts Go to Break Fremantle's record at Adelaide Oval is the kind of thing that is either endearing or maddening depending on your emotional investment. Five of Fremantle's past six games at the venue have been decided by 10 points or less and there have been no shortage of memorable moments late in these games. In the past couple of years alone: a two-point win over the Crows (last week), a port thriller that went down to the final seconds, and now this. Tonight we are playing here for the second week running, which means either we are very comfortable at this ground, or we are participating in some kind of slow-motion cardiac stress test administered by the AFL.
Collingwood, on the other hand, have an extraordinary record at Adelaide Oval — 11 wins from their past 12 games at the venue. I note this statistic with the weary recognition of a Freo supporter who has seen this pattern before. The Magpies travel well. They play big games well. They have been doing it for thirty years and they have the premiership cup count to prove it. I am choosing to believe that the current version of Collingwood — missing their captain, coming off a 54-point loss to Brisbane, ranked second-last for clearance differential — represents a sufficiently degraded version of "Collingwood travelling well" that it need not concern me unduly. Whether this is analysis or denial is, frankly, a matter of perspective.
Key Battles to Watch (From a Completely Unbiased Perspective) Serong/Brayshaw/Bolton vs. Daicos/Pendlebury (The Main Event): This is what it comes down to. Freo's midfield three against Collingwood's returning veterans. If Daicos is at 80% from the calf, and Pendlebury is being carefully managed in his 429th game on a cold night, our midfield should have the upper hand in the second half when fitness and game tempo matter most. Fremantle sit second for clearance differential this season while Collingwood are second last. If this trend continues tonight, Freo will win. It is almost that simple.
Luke Jackson vs. Darcy Cameron: Jackson is dominant at the tap this season, distributing cleanly and regularly. Cameron, who remains a reliable but limited ruckman, has been exposed by the new ruck rules that reward genuine height and spring. Jackson has both. This could be a quarter-by-quarter accumulation of Freo first-use advantages that slowly but surely bleeds the Pies dry.
Treacy/Amiss/Voss vs. whoever is left in Collingwood's backline: Without Moore anchoring the key defensive post, who exactly is marking Josh Treacy? Billy Frampton? Brayden Maynard filling in? These are fine players, but Treacy has been unstoppable this season and he knows it. Jye Amiss has found his marking contests again. Pat Voss is capable of a career game at any moment. At some point this evening, one of these three is going to have a very enjoyable football match. I am hoping for all three, obviously.
Murphy Reid vs. everyone: Reid is quietly becoming one of the most exciting players in the competition. His ability to be both an intercepting defender AND a high-volume midfielder AND a forward dangerous player is unusual in someone who isn't already on an All-Australian nomination form. Watch him tonight. He will do something that makes you text someone.
The Completely Impartial Verdict Fremantle 89 — Collingwood 74 Fremantle by 15 in a tight, physical, wet Friday night grind that is significantly more stressful than anyone would like. Collingwood make a game of it in the third quarter when Daicos inevitably produces a ten-minute stretch of football so good that it temporarily makes me question everything I believe. Freo hold on through midfield superiority, Luke Jackson's ruck dominance, and what I expect will be another Josh Treacy performance that someone at AFL House has filed under "we might need to move his games away from Collingwood before they complain." Murphy Reid gets 28 touches and does something extraordinary with at least one of them. Caleb Serong gets 30+. Alex Pearce does something heroic in the last two minutes because at this point the man simply cannot help himself. Freo move to 4-1 and I will write a post-match review that is even more embarrassingly one-eyed than this preview. It's the circle of life, really.
*Predictions are for entertainment purposes only. The author accepts no responsibility for elevated blood pressure, involuntary shouting, or the inexplicable urge to live-text your Dad during the last quarter.